[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 010237
TCDAT1

HURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

THE APPEARANCE OF KIRK ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES HAS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE RAGGED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE
IMAGES...HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE COMPACT
HURRICANE IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL STILL INTACT. AN
AVERAGE OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS IS THE BASIS FOR LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT.
KIRK IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO BUT BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO OCCUR BY
DAY 2...WHEN KIRK IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW 20C AND IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. NEARLY ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW KIRK BECOMING ABSORBED BY A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OR
DISSIPATING WITHIN A FEW DAYS.

KIRK IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A LITTLE FASTER
PACE...015/14...AS IT IS BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO THE
EAST OF A TROUGH. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL KIRK DISSIPATES OR BECOMES ABSORBED.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 33.9N  49.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 36.1N  47.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 39.4N  44.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 43.7N  39.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 48.1N  33.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  04/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



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