[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 310622 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2012

CORRECTION TO WIND/WAVE INFORMATION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE FEATURES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SECTION...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC AT 31/0300 UTC
IS NEAR 33.5N 93.0W...ABOUT 85 MILES/135 KM TO THE NORTHEAST
OF SHREVEPORT IN LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 95 MILES/150 KM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE ROCK IN ARKANSAS. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE ...30 MPH. ISAAC IS MOVING NORTHWARD
10 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB.
PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KWNH FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK AT 31/0300 UTC IS NEAR 29.0N 50.7W.
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY...MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 29N TO 31N
BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS BEYOND
32N57N TO THE WEST OF 50W...EXCEPT FOR THE HURRICANE KIRK
MOISTURE.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 31/0300 UTC IS NEAR
14N.7N 46.8W. LESLIE IS MOVING WESTWARD 16 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N
TO 15N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W AND FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 49W
AND 50W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 47W AND 52W AND FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE INCLUDED IN THE 31/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP
ANALYSIS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W
TO 18N19W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INDISTINCT AFTER THAT...TO THE
EAST OF T.S. LESLIE...BEING DISRUPTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROPICAL STORM. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 31/0015 UTC...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 8.5N TO 11 BETWEEN 13.5W AND 15W IN COASTAL GUINEA
AND GUINEA-BISSAU...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
5N TO 8N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM ISAAC COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS MEXICO BETWEEN THE MEXICO BORDER
WITH THE GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N72W...TO 24N84W 24N90W...TO
25N94W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE WESTERN CUBA-TO-NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED WESTWARD...AND NOW IT IS
AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS ON TOP OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS ABOUT 90 TO 100 NM TO THE EAST OF EAST CENTRAL COASTAL
NICARAGUA. A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA ALONG 75W BEYOND CUBA ALONG 80W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 11N85W IN
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF
COLOMBIA-TO-CUBA LINE. THREE CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE...NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...AND
ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 7N
BETWEEN 77W AND 79W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N60W 12N61W 10N61W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF
THE COLOMBIA-TO-CUBA LINE THAT IS RELATED TO THE MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO
17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N32W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N32W TO A 21N29W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N28W AND 6N31W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 28N BETWEEN 26W AND 40W. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 7N TO 21N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W...
JUST TO THE EAST OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...THAT IS NEAR 32N36W TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE
EAST OF 45W...TO THE EAST OF HURRICANE KIRK. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N72W...FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND
80W...TO THE WEST OF HURRICANE KIRK.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT HURRICANE KIRK...AND ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LESLIE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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