[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 301435
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND IS ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE
EMBEDDED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BAND.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS 30 KT...WHICH IS BASED ON A BLEND OF TAFB AND SAB 1200 UTC
ESTIMATES... THOUGH IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE STRONGER BASED ON THE
LATEST PICTURES.  AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WARM WATERS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS NEAR THE SYSTEM. THE LONG RANGE
INTENSITY SEEMS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WILDLY
DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERNS.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IF THE LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOWN BY THE GFS MATERIALIZES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 275/17.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
DEPRESSION WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON AS IT MOVES
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...PARTIALLY RELATED TO
KIRK.  WHILE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD SOMEWHAT AS KIRK MOVES
OUT TO SEA...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW TROUGHING BETWEEN
60W-70W IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROBABLY TURN THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE.  THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 14.1N  43.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 14.8N  45.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 15.9N  48.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 17.1N  52.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 18.5N  55.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 21.0N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 24.5N  61.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 27.0N  61.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



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