[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC AT 29/1700 UTC IS NEAR 29.7N
90.8W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 10 MI NW OF HOUMA LOUISIANA...AND
ABOUT 45 MI WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. THE WIND GENERATED BY
ISAAC IS PRODUCING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 973 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE E...WITH A FEW BANDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-94W. ALL RESIDENTS ALONG THE NRN
GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA SHOULD STAY
TUNED TO ALL BULLETINS THAT ARE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AND THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR
UPDATES ABOUT HURRICANE ISAAC.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK AT 29/1500 UTC IS NEAR 24.7N
46.9W. KIRK IS MOVING WNW 10 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY...MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER TO THE
N AND NW.

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED NEAR 13N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 34W-45W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS FOUND TO THE SE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 37W-45W. ASSOCIATED TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH DISCUSSED BELOW. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND
THE CENTER HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONS 24 HOUR AGO.
WHILE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT IMMINENT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE INCLUDED IN THE 29/1200 UTC
SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 32W/33W TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE
COAST OF SENEGAL AT 13N17W QUICKLY ENDING AT 15N22W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH BEGINS AGAIN SOUTH OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG
12N35W 9N42W TO 11N49W. A SMALL PORTION OF THE ITCZ DEVELOPS
FROM 13N55W INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE ISLAND OF ST.
VINCENT ENDING AT 13N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 17W-25W...AND FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 37W-45W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM N OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 54W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE ISAAC CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE N-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
AS IT MOVES ACROSS S-ERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER AND TO THE E...WITH A FEW BANDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-94W. THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OF ISAAC COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THIS FLOW ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRAWN ACROSS THE E AND SE GULF IS
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 87W. FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WRN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE ATTRIBUTED TO
DRY AIR ALOFT WRAPPING AROUND ISAAC. STORMY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE NE AND N-CENTRAL GULF FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THESE REGAINS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY
CENTERED JUST WEST OF JAMAICA. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING AN AREA
OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 80W-86W. SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION S OF 13N IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE ERN
PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS
NRN COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. THE SURFACE FLOW IN THIS REGION
IS MOSTLY FROM THE S CARRYING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDERS OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWIND
FLOW IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN E OF 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ASIDE TROPICAL STORM KIRK...THE ATLANTIC BASIN DISCUSSION AREA N
OF 18N IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N59W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR 20N37W. THE OVERALL ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED ALOFT BY
SAHARAN DUST NOTED ON GOES-R IMAGERY AND METEOSAT-9 SAL PRODUCT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net