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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...ISAAC LASHING SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 80.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ENE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH
SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF IS DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST
TO JUST EAST OF MORGAN CITY...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...
CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANAMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF VILLA CLARA
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NORTH OF
BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23. NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H.  A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  A WIND GUST TO 60 MPH...97 KM/H...WAS REPORTED IN
POMPANO BEACH...AND A WIND GUST TO 59 MPH...95 KM/H WAS REPORTED IN
KENDALL.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS...THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN CUBA BY LATE TODAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* CRYSTAL RIVER THROUGH THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...4 TO 7 FT
* SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...4 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO SOUTH OF CRYSTAL RIVER
INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* THE BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

TORNADOES...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS


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