[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 240848
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 24 2012

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY
NON-EXISTANT FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS DUE TO THE COMBINED INHIBITING
INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. BOTH TAFB AND
SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN. INDEED...ALL
OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...WITH THE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...INDICATE THAT JOYCE
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY
PREDICTION KEEPS THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL.
HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON...JOYCE COULD
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND ADVISORIES WOULD BE
DISCONTINUED.

THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS CLEARLY EVIDENT FROM THE GOES-EAST
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT
OF THE MOTION OF JOYCE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT.  JOYCE
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION AT A FASTER RATE OF SPEED
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS IT IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH.  AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE TVCA
CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 16.9N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 17.8N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 19.2N  50.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 21.0N  54.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 22.8N  57.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 27.0N  63.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 31.5N  64.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 36.5N  56.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA


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