[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 240236
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 23 2012

CONVECTION HAS NOT REFORMED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JOYCE...AND
SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT IT REMAINS EXPOSED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF ITS
DYING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0000 UTC
SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT...SO 30 KT WILL BE USED AS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WATERS...MODERATE OR STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR
IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT
ALLOW FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING...SO LITTLE CHANGE IS SHOWN DURING
THAT TIME.  IN A FEW DAYS...JOYCE COULD BE POSITIONED IN A LIGHTER
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THUS...SOME
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SHOWN AT LONG RANGE...WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.   IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT...CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT...IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING IF JOYCE DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW SOMETIME
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...
300/12.  JOYCE SHOULD ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES INTO FASTER FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  A TURN TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR AFTER DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN IS ADJUSTED TO THE
LEFT DURING RECURVATURE IN THE LONG RANGE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 16.3N  43.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 17.4N  46.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 18.9N  48.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 20.7N  52.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 22.8N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 27.0N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 31.5N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 36.0N  58.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



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