[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 230233
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012
1100 PM AST WED AUG 22 2012

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN HAS BEEN PRODUCING PULSES OF DEEP CONVECTION
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED.
DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AT 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
CYCLONE IS STILL BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE ROAD AHEAD IS SOMEWHAT OF AN
OBSTACLE COURSE.  THE DEPRESSION IS NOT TOO FAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST...AND IT IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH
THIS FEATURE IN SOME FASHION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  EVEN AFTER
THE DEPRESSION MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW ON DAYS 4 AND 5...THE
CYCLONE COULD THEN BE AFFECTED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OF
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC TO ITS WEST.  THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS HAVE NEVER SHOWN MUCH STRENGTHENING WITH THIS CYCLONE...AND
THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS HAVE COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY
ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...LYING JUST ABOVE THE
GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THEN VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 295/15 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT REACHES THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON DAY 3.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS THEN EXPECTED ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST ON THIS CYCLE BUT IS
STILL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS
THEREFORE BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  THIS TRACK ENDS UP
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL ON DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 13.8N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 14.5N  41.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 15.4N  44.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 16.4N  46.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 17.6N  49.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 21.0N  55.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 25.0N  62.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 30.0N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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