[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 222041
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012
500 PM AST WED AUG 22 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING...POSSIBLY
COINCIDING WITH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELONGATED.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 2.0...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14...HOWEVER THIS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES
TOWARD A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CAUSES THE
RIDGE TO RETREAT AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE
RIDGE.  THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND IS
CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...AND THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
ATLANTIC...ARE DISTORTING THE OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
INTO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK OVER THE SYSTEM. BY
DAY THREE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CATCH UP TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
WIND SHEAR...AND A HALTING OF INTENSIFICATION. THE SHEAR MAY
DECREASE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
LOWERED SLIGHTLY...IN LARGE PART DUE TO THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF
THE STORM...AND IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 13.1N  37.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 14.0N  39.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 15.0N  42.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 16.0N  44.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 17.1N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 19.9N  53.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 23.5N  59.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 28.5N  64.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY


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