[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 22/1200 UTC IS NEAR
15.7N 58.4W...MOVING WESTWARD 16 KNOTS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT
210 NM/340 KM TO THE EAST OF GUADELOUPE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 56W
AND 60W...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
7N57W 14N52W AND FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. THIS
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ISLANDS FROM THE GRENADA NORTHWARD.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM THE
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N ALONG THE WAVE
TO 17N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 33W AND
37W AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ABOUT 240 NM TO THE WEST OF
THIS WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS THE 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 13 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A COMPARATIVELY WEAK EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 67W FROM 9N IN NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA TO 17N...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 67W AND 74W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N...FROM
THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST BEYOND GUATEMALA...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
IN SOUTHERN BELIZE AND POSSIBLY THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 18N96.5W
IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF 100W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W...
ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 15N27W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N ALONG THE 34W/35W TROPICAL
WAVE...TO 9N39W AND 8N43W. THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ
ARE INDISTINCT DUE TO THE TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N98W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W...TO 21N97W. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF MEXICO NEAR
22N101W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
23N TO 25N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN CLUSTERS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF
90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 90W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER
TO CUBA NEAR 23N83W. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY INLAND
MORE AND MORE WITH TIME. NO DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS FORECAST.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 90W/91W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 90W
TO 22N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CENTRAL GEORGIA
1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 28N88W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 25N91W.

FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N62W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N70W TO 22N75W...BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND CUBA...TO 17N75W AND 12N74W NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 28N TO 32N
BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...ISOLATED MODERATE BETWEEN HAITI AND
JAMAICA AND CUBA AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N78W ALONG
THE PANAMA COAST...BEYOND 10N85W IN COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N
BETWEEN 77W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
T.S. ISAAC. A SECOND AREA IS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND
78W FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. A THIRD
AREA IS TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.
A FOURTH AREA IS TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE EAST OF 76W
INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N73W TO 26N77W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TO
THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTRAL U.S.A. TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO
28N38W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N48W
TO 19N49W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N30W TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N49W...TO 29N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 25N91W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT T.S. ISAAC...AND THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 11.5N34.5W...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
NEAR 13.5N39.5W IN 24 HOURS...AND NEAR 15N45.5W IN 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net