[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 22/0600 UTC IS NEAR
15.6N 56.4W...MOVING WESTWARD 16 KNOTS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT
300 NM/555 KM TO THE EAST OF GUADELOUPE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY... MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND
58W AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W AND FROM 13N TO 20N
BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ISLANDS FROM
THE SAINT LUCIA CHANNEL TO GUADELOUPE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W FROM THE
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N ALONG THE WAVE
TO 17N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W
AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 31W AND 38W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 22N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 23N36W 16N37W 11N38W TO THE
WEST OF THIS WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 13 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A COMPARATIVELY WEAK EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 65W/66W FROM 9N IN NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA TO 17N...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
65W AND 74W. IT IS NOT EASY TO DISCERN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
ADVANCING T.S. ISAAC PRECIPITATION THAT IS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL STORM AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
IS BEING GENERATED BY THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM
21N89W INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA ALONG 90W...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG
90W TO THE GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR BORDER...MOVING WESTWARD
15 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
17N93W...MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN WESTERN
HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA AND IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W
AND 97W. EARLIER STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS JUST
OFF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED...LEAVING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THAT AREA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W
TO 14N22W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
11N33W...TO 7N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N40W TO 11N48W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N96W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N97W...TO 22N97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 24N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 27N
BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INLAND MORE AND MORE WITH TIME.
NO DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 89W/90W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CENTRAL GEORGIA
1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 28N89W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF 87W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO 25N87W.

FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N62W TO 26N70W
TO 22N74W...BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA...
TO 17N75W AND 12N74W NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN
65W AND 70W...ISOLATED MODERATE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N78W ALONG
THE PANAMA COAST...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
T.S. ISAAC. A SECOND AREA IS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
78W FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. A THIRD
AREA IS TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 84W INCLUDING IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N72W TO 26N78W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST
OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTRAL U.S.A. TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO
27N40W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N47W
TO 20N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 30N33W 26N37W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
30W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N48W...TO 29N71W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...TO 25N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT T.S. ISAAC...AND THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 11N33W...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR
12N38W IN 24 HOURS...AND NEAR 13N42W IN 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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