[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 21/1200 UTC IS NEAR 15.1N 51.8W...OR
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM E OF GUADELOUPE. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...
MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 51W
AND 53W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 54W AND 55W AND FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH THE LEVEL OF TROPICAL
STORM NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS ABOUT 36 HOURS
INTO THE FUTURE. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN INITIATED BY
THE INDIVIDUAL GOVERNMENTS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA AND GUADELOUPE NORTHWARD.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W FROM THE
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N ALONG THE WAVE TO
17N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 18N BETWEEN
23W AND 36W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS
ALONG 23N31W 17N34W 10N35W TO THE WEST OF THIS WAVE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N96W IN THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
COASTAL WATERS TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 20N97W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
20N TO 24N BETWEEN 96W AND 97.5W. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W FROM 10N TO 18N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ELSEWHERE FROM TO THE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W...
REACHING EAST CENTRAL HONDURAS AND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N90W IN
NORTHERN GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND
THE 18N90W CIRCULATION CENTER FROM EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS TO
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BETWEEN
85W AND 95W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
SOUTHERN BELIZE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE
NUMEROUS STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT COVERED THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC SIX HOURS EARLIER HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W
TO 15N20W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
10N29W...TO 9N36W AND 9N46W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BROKEN UP
BY THE CIRCULATION THAT IS MOVING AROUND T.D. NINE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 23...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REFERRING TO THE
25N96W 20N97W SURFACE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO COASTAL WATERS TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 85W/86W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM MEXICO NEAR 21N97W TO 25N88W
BEYOND 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 87W TO THE COASTAL BORDER OF TEXAS
AND MEXICO.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AT THE
MOMENT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N61W...TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO
THE TO 21N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

FROM THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N34W
TO A 30N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N41W AND 27N51W.
A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 27N51W TO 30N57W. A TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM 30N57W TO A 25N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 25N60W TO A 22N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND REACHING 15N72W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 13N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
58W AND 70W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN AN
AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 27N40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 20N84W...
REACHING EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W...INTO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W FROM 10N TO 18N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ELSEWHERE FROM TO THE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W.
OTHER BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE BETWEEN 65W AND 73W...WELL TO THE WEST OF THE ADVANCING
TROPICAL WAVE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 73W IN
COLOMBIA...BEYOND 83W COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 12N80W 10N77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
T.D. NINE AND ITS CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. A SECOND AREA
IS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. A THIRD AREA IS TO THE SOUTH OF 19N
TO THE WEST OF 84W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FOR
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N49W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N61W...TO 27N71W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT T.D. NINE...AND THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 11N34W...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR
12.5N37W IN 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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