[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N26W 13N27W TO
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
10N27W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N
TO 11N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
TO 22N BETWEEN 23W AND 34W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 22N30W 16N32W 10N33W TO THE WEST
OF THIS WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N47W 17N49W TO
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE THAT IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 46W AND 52W ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 38W
AND 56W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 20 TO
25 MPH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE MAY REACH
THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY...AND RESIDENTS IN THAT AREA
SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR SOME OF
THOSE ISLANDS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO
26N94W IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N97W IN
THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG
87W TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 25N. THE AREA OF CONCENTRATED
INTEREST IS ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST/COASTAL WATERS ROUGHLY
FROM 21N TO 25N. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM STILL
IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N59W 13N58W 9N57W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N TO 19N
BETWEEN 56W AND 63W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N84W...REACHING
EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W...INTO CENTRAL NICARAGUA
NEAR 13N85W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
18N90W IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES AROUND THE 18N90W CIRCULATION CENTER FROM EL SALVADOR AND
HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO BETWEEN 85W AND 95W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN CUBA TO THE WEST OF 79W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA INTO WESTERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHERN EL SALVADOR TO WESTERN GUATEMALA...
ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W
TO 16N20W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
10N27W...TO 9N35W AND 11N41W. THE MONSOON TROUGH BECOMES BROKEN
AT 11N41W DUE TO THE LARGE CIRCULATION THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N49W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH STARTS AGAIN FROM 15N49W AND IT CONTINUES TO 12N50W
AND 7N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 54W...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 26N94W
IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N97W IN THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG
87W TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 25N. THE AREA OF CONCENTRATED
INTEREST IS ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST/COASTAL WATERS ROUGHLY
FROM 21N TO 25N. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM STILL
IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG
20N84W...REACHING EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W...INTO
CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM MEXICO NEAR 21N97W TO 25N88W
BEYOND 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 87W TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 25N...
AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF 28N80W BEYOND 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N62W...TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 25N94W.

FROM THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N34W
TO A 30N41W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N41W AND 27N51W.
A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 27N51W TO 30N57W. A TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM 30N57W TO A 25N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 25N60W TO A 22N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND REACHING 15N72W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 13N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN
35W AND 40W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 30W AND 41W AND TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 59W AND
73W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N34W TO 30N36W TO 28N42W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 20N84W...
REACHING EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W...INTO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N59W 13N58W 9N57W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N TO 19N
BETWEEN 56W AND 63W. OTHER BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 63W AND 73W...WELL TO THE
WEST OF THE ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 83W COSTA RICA. EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE
WEST OF 79W. THAT PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW THAT IS ALONG 13N TO THE WEST
OF 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 26N35W AND 26N47W...TO 28N50W TO A SECOND 1021 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N62W...TO SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA. THE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N94W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N49W...
THAT IS FORECAST TO BE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 16N56W
IN 24 HOURS AND TO BE NEAR 17N63W IN 48 HOURS. A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALSO IS FORECAST IN 48 HOURS TO BE NEAR 11N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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