[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 201744
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM COULD
REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF
IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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