[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 190233
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2012

GORDON HAS AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH A DISTINCT WARM
EYE. A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 95 KT. THE HURRICANE IS CROSSING
THE 26C ISOTHERM AND SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE STRENGTH SOON. WEAKENING
SHOULD BE MORE RAPID BY LATE TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
COOL WATERS AND IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH EVERY MODEL
KEEPS GORDON AS A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES THE AZORES. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE LGEM MODEL.
A STRONG TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH GORDON IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD FACILITATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 72
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/19...A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST WITHIN A DAY OR SO DUE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED WITH ALMOST
EVERY MODEL MOVING GORDON THROUGH THE EASTERN AZORES BETWEEN 24 AND
36 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...STAYING ON THE SPEEDY SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE
GORDON HAS BEEN A FAST MOVER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 34.5N  33.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 35.1N  30.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 36.3N  26.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 37.7N  23.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 38.9N  20.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 39.5N  17.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  23/0000Z 39.0N  15.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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