[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 182032
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012
400 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012

HELENE IS MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND IT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE.  THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
25 KT BASED ON A 1554 UTC ASCAT PASS...WHICH BARELY SHOWED 20-25 KT
OF WIND OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE CIRCULATION APPEARS
TO BE LOSING SOME DEFINITION...AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR SOON IF
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE RIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS HELENE
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HELENE HAS SLOWED DOWN NOW THAT IT IS OVER LAND...AND THE ESTIMATED
MOTION IS 295/4 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO RUN INTO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOON...AND IT IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 22.6N  98.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  19/0600Z 22.9N  99.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG



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