[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 180233
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2012

A SERIES OF SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM THE NAVY/NRL TC PAGE
INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF GORDON.  BASED ON THE IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN...THE
TAFB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE...AND TWO EARLIER CIRA AMSU-A
ESTIMATES OF 62 AND 70 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
60 KT.

THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  SUBSEQUENTLY...GORDON COULD STILL BECOME A
HURRICANE IN THE SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES
NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE STRENGTHENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY DAY 2 WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING
TREND.  GORDON SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND THE
72 HOUR PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND THE FLORIDA STATE CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION DIAGRAM.  THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IVCN STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND REFLECTS DISSIPATION AT DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 090/16 KT...WITHIN THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
GENERALLY EASTWARD AT A RAPID CLIP THROUGH DAY 3 AS IT MOVES SOUTH
OF A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW SITUATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF
THE UNITED KINGDOM.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GORDON SHOULD BE A WEAK POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY DAY 5 IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 34.2N  42.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 34.1N  39.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 34.4N  35.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 35.2N  31.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 36.4N  27.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 39.0N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/0000Z 39.0N  16.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net