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WTNT32 KNHC 172123
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HELENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012
430 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...AIRCRAFT FINDS TROPICAL STORM HELENE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 96.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA TO LA CRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST. HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF HELENE WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE WARNING AREA ON
SATURDAY.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE HELENE MOVES INLAND...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED
AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...HELENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO FROM NORTHERN
VERACRUZ...ACROSS SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS AND EASTERN SAN LUIS STATES.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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