[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON AT 17/0900 UTC IS NEAR 34.6N
48.1W. GORDON IS MOVING EASTWARD 16 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 34N
TO 36N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 32N TO 40N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...MOVING
THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THIS WAVE IS
THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
AND MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD 9 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE MOST RECENT RAWINSONDE DATA FOR BAMAKO IN MALI SHOW
THAT A TROPICAL WAVE HAS PASSED THAT STATION DURING THE LAST
48 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST A COMPARATIVELY LOWER AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
ALONG 17W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 22W AND 27W.
THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 42W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 57W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL/COASTAL
GAMBIA...TO 12N20W 11N30W 10N40W AND 10N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 10N43W TO 12N48W AND 13N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS TOWARD 20N100W IN MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH
OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 94W.

THE REST OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA TO ALABAMA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 92W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL
CYCLONE...20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N64W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N66W AND 19N69W...AND THEN
TOWARD JAMAICA. THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS
BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE...HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18N80W 13N79W...TO COLOMBIA
ABOUT 40 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE GULF OF URABA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 17N71W
TO 14N75W...TO AN 11N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. BROAD
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 11N79W CYCLONIC
CENTER EVEN REACHES THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR THE GULF OF URABA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 11N86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND ITS EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA
AND IN PANAMA FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG IN NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA/SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N48W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 38W AND 55W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 22N30W
TO 16N36W TO 8N40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 34N12W...TO 28N30W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N50W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...NFDHSFAT1 AND MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GORDON...FOR DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 TO 14 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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