[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 170231
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
1100 PM AST THU AUG 16 2012

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SYMMETRIC WITH THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CIRCULAR AREA OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BAND IS WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 AND 3.0 RESPECTIVELY. AN AVERAGE OF THESE TWO
ESTIMATES SUGGESTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. GORDON ONLY
HAS A DAY OR SO TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS STRONG SHEAR. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN
BEGIN...BUT GORDON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM BY THE
TIME IT MOVES THROUGH THE AZORES IN 3 DAYS. ONCE GORDON MOVE EAST OF
THE AZORES...IT SHOULD ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 085 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS...WELL
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SINCE THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN WELL
ESTABLISHED...GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. TRACK
MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE CYCLONE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AZORES. MODELS ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST BY 72 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE
WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BRINGS GORDON THROUGH THE AZORES IN ABOUT 3
DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 34.6N  50.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 34.9N  47.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 34.8N  43.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 34.5N  39.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 34.5N  35.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 36.5N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 39.0N  21.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/0000Z 41.0N  15.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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