[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT AT 16/0000 UTC IS NEAR
31.3N 55.5W. T.D. EIGHT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 15 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/
WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N
TO 36N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N50W 15N47W 10N43W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 38W AND 55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 18N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 19N
BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 27N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N63W...
AND THEN TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HISPANIOLA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W...FROM 23N JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN HONDURAS. THIS WAVE IS
REMNANT OF T.D. SEVEN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLIER
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERED THE
COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE AREA FROM EASTERN EL SALVADOR TO WESTERN HONDURAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W INCLUDING IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
14N16W...TO 11N30W 8N37W AND 6N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
6N40W TO 3N44W AND 2N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 60W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN INVERTED TROUGH
IS ALONG 22N58W 15N59W...BEYOND 7N59W IN NORTHERN GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W...TO A 25N89W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 21N.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ON TOP OF MEXICO
IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TEXAS TO THE SOUTH OF 32N
ALONG 101W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
32N101W 25N96W 19N93W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM
A 33N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N62W...20N62W...
CROSSING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...TO A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N76W BETWEEN JAMAICA
AND HAITI. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS...AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
18N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN
68W AND 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N63W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N63W...AND THEN
TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HISPANIOLA.

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 67W...MOVING WESTWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA...NORTHWESTWARD
SPANNING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHWESTERN
COSTA RICA AND SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 22N57W
16N58W...BEYOND 7N59W IN NORTHERN GUYANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 29N53W
20N58W SURFACE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N25W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N44W...TO BERMUDA...SOUTHWESTWARD PASSING ON TOP OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 26N80W NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT...AND EXCEPT AS NOTED IN
WARNINGS...WITHIN 150 NM OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN
60 NM OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
THE 12 HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR CONDITIONS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM EIGHT TO HAVE MOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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