[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 160242
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
1100 PM AST WED AUG 15 2012

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN...WHICH IN FACT IS SMALL...IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THAN EARLIER TODAY. A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BAND IS WRAPPING AROUND
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
VERY LIMITED. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE WHICH RESULTS IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS.
THE DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS
COOLER WATERS. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS FOLLOWING THE ICON AND
THE LGEM MODELS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE HWRF...WHICH INSISTS ON
MAKING THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES
AT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. VERY
SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND RECURVE AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ONCE IN THE
WESTERLIES...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE
FORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IN 4 DAYS OR
SO...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE AZORES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 31.3N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 33.0N  54.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 34.5N  52.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 35.5N  48.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 35.5N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 35.5N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 37.5N  28.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 40.0N  22.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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