[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N54W...
TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N54W...TO
21N58W. THIS TROUGH ORIGINATED AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CURRENT 60W TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO
29N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN
49W AND 57W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 13 KNOTS TODAY...AND THEN IT TURNS
NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N...BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
9N TO 24N BETWEEN 14W AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W FROM 20N TO 10N...
BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N...REACHING THE VENEZUELA/GUYANA BORDER...BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N
TO 22N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ATLANTIC OCEAN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 22N58W 15N59W...BEYOND
7N59W IN NORTHERN GUYANA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W...FROM 23N IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
BEYOND WESTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED ACROSS EL SALVADOR AND ITS
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST TO WEST. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL WATERS
OF NICARAGUA...AND IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF HONDURAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND REMNANT DEBRIS
CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 26N82W 24N87W 22N89W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
14N16W...TO 11N30W 8N37W AND 6N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
6N40W TO 3N44W AND 2N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 60W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN INVERTED TROUGH
IS ALONG 22N58W 15N59W...BEYOND 7N59W IN NORTHERN GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W...TO A 25N89W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 21N.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ON TOP OF MEXICO
IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TEXAS TO THE SOUTH OF 32N
ALONG 101W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
32N101W 25N96W 19N93W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM
A 33N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N62W...20N62W...
CROSSING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...TO A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N76W BETWEEN JAMAICA
AND HAITI. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS...AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH
OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...MOVING WESTWARD.

THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED
WESTWARD...AND NOW IT MOSTLY IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SPREADING ACROSS EL SALVADOR FROM EAST TO WEST.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN COLOMBIA ALONG 75W BEYOND
84W IN COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 75W...ACROSS PARTS OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 82W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY
THE TROPICAL WAVE/REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN THAT ARE ALONG 86W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 22N57W
16N58W...BEYOND 7N59W IN NORTHERN GUYANA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 29N53W
20N58W SURFACE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N25W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N44W...TO BERMUDA...SOUTHWESTWARD PASSING ON TOP OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 26N80W NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF FLORIDA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 28N18W...
BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS FROM 28N18W TO 23N26W AND 22N35W. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W 31N22W.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N18W TO 30N25W TO 32N34W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE
RELATED TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN 30N54W 21N58W SURFACE
TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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