[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD SINCE SOME OF ITS
ENERGY...IN THE FORM OF THE CURRENT 28N47W 24N49W 20N50W
SURFACE TROUGH...SEPARATED FROM IT A FEW DAYS AGO. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N. THIS WAVE REPRESENTS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 79W AND 80W AND FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN
80W AND 83W. SOME OF THE STRONG PRECIPITATION ALREADY IS
REACHING NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ON TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
WAVE MOVES WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF
MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL THAT IS NEAR 16N16W...TO 10N25W 8N32W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N32W TO 8N40W 11N52W...CURVING TO
10N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W AND
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 36W...ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO
THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...
AND IN FLORIDA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 79W
AND 82W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO TEXAS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF 28N98W 26N91W 23N87W...
TO 15N88W IN NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
27N74W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...TO
A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N84W...
TO 25N94W TO 27N86W...CONTINUING TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO
NEAR 25N98W. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST FROM 20N TO 22N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N. THIS WAVE REPRESENTS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 79W AND 80W AND FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND
84W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. SOME OF THE STRONG PRECIPITATION ALREADY IS
REACHING NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...ALONG 18N81W 15N81W 10N83W NEAR THE
PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N
TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 75W IN COASTAL
COLOMBIA AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY
THE TROPICAL WAVE/REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN THAT ARE ALONG 80W/81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 35N60W TO A
32N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 29N61W CYCLONIC
CENTER...TO 22N63W...TO A 20N71W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS AT THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO 19N73W NEAR THE COAST OF HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 57W AND
66W. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE SHEARING THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N47W 24N49W 20N50W. THIS TROUGH
ORIGINALLY SEPARATED ITSELF FROM THE 52W/53W TROPICAL WAVE
A FEW DAYS AGO. IT CONTINUES ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 23N27W...14N34W. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N38W. A TROUGH/SHEAR
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 24N38W TO 27N49W. AN INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM 27N49W TO 16N55W TO 6N53W. THIS TROUGH PASSES ON TOP OF THE
AREA OF THE 28N47W 24N49W 20N50W SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N11W...TO 29N30W...TO
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N47W...TO
28N61W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE RELATED
TO THE 28N47W 20N50W SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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