[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N26W...TO A 1014 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N26W...TO 11N23W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 23W AND 24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27N46W 23N47W 19N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W. OTHER
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N78W 17N79W 13N77W.
THIS WAVE REPRESENTS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W AND FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN
79W AND 81W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ON TUESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT WAS SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
MAY BE CANCELED SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WAVE MAY
REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATER THIS MORNING.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER OF
MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL THAT IS NEAR 16N16W...TO 13N20W 10N26W
9N30W 8N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N36W TO 10N47W AND
11N54W...CURVING TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
13N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W...ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO
THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...
AND IN FLORIDA AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 79W
AND 82W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO TEXAS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF 28N98W 26N91W 23N87W...
TO 15N88W IN NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
27N74W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...TO
A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N84W...
TO 25N94W TO 27N86W...CONTINUING TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
MEXICO NEAR 25N98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N78W 17N79W 13N77W.
THIS WAVE REPRESENTS THE REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W AND FROM 20N TO 21N
BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.

AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...ALONG 18N81W 15N81W 10N83W NEAR
THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 86W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA
FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA
AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY
THE TROPICAL WAVE/REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN THAT ARE ALONG 77W/79W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 35N60W
TO A 32N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N62W...TO
22N62W...TO A 20N71W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS AT
THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 19N73W
NEAR THE COAST OF HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 57W AND 66W.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
SHEARING THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 28N27W...24N37W.
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 28N47W 20N50W 16N55W
8N55W. THIS TROUGH PASSES ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 46W/50W
TROPICAL WAVE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N19W...TO 32N36W...
TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N47W...
TO 28N65W 27N74W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...
TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE
RELATED TO THE 46W/50W TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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