[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N TO 13N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN SENEGAL WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 15N15W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27N41W 22N41W 17N42W.
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 22N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N69W 17N70W 14N71W...
TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N71W. THIS WAVE REPRESENTS
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. SEVEN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. THE
COMPARATIVELY BIGGER AREA OF LAKE MARACAIBO CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. THAT AREA HAS BEEN
REPLACED BY SMALLER AREAS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE MARACAIBO TOWARD
THE COAST AND EVEN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE EAST OF 75W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 10N21W 10N35W 10N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N38W
TO 9N43W AND 8N50W. IS ALONG 9N20W 10N26W 10N33W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 10N33W 11N45W 10N52W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN
30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH REACHES 30N87W...JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 80W AND
85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN FLORIDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N101W ON TOP OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TEXAS...AND
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 90W. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...AND ALONG
THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW STILL COVERS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE EAST OF 90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
30N66W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA ALONG 28N...
TO 27N86W...CONTINUING TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO NEAR
26N97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N69W 17N70W 14N71W...TO NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N71W. THIS WAVE REPRESENTS THE REMNANTS OF
T.D. SEVEN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
14N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. THE COMPARATIVELY BIGGER
AREA OF LAKE MARACAIBO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED. THAT AREA HAS BEEN REPLACED BY SMALLER
AREAS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE MARACAIBO TOWARD THE COAST AND EVEN
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST
OF 75W.

AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...ALONG 20N79W 9N80W AT THE COAST OF
PANAMA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...TO COLOMBIA NEAR 9N73W...TO 8N78W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N85W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND
CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF OF URABA FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W...FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 77W
AND 80W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN...AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
WINDS AND SEAS THAT ACCOMPANY THE TROPICAL WAVE/REMNANTS
OF T.D. SEVEN...AND THE 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 35N60W
TO A 30N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N61W...TO 19N64W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 36N12W...TO 33N29W...TO A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N38W...TO 33N50W 29N66W...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO AN EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO THE 41W/43W
TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
ALONG IT NEAR 22N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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