[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N30W THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW NEAR
20N31W TO 17N32W MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED
IN A CUT OFF AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 32W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE...PREVIOUSLY T.D. SEVEN...EXTENDS FROM 18N58W OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W MOVING
W 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 60W-62W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 10-18N BETWEEN 57W-65W INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...TRINIDADA AND TOBAGO.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO AND IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 22N W OF 94W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 12N21W THEN RESUMES S OF THE LOW/TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 16N32W ALONG 12N35W TO 10N42W. THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY
NOT IN THE ATLC BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF AFRICA FROM 13N-18N E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE NW GULF OVER
MISSISSIPPI TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N95W CONTINUING TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR THE CIUDAD DEL CARMEN AND SUPPORTING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS INLAND STRETCHING THROUGH NE GEORGIA TO
E/CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE E
GULF SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 26N88W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST NEAR APALACHEE BAY...OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 85W TO
OVER CUBA/S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND S
OF 22N BETWEEN 85W-93W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER CUBA AND
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W
ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 67W GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 12N W
OF 77W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR
10N75W ALONG 11N78W CROSSING PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N E OF 77W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE E
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON
AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TUE BEFORE SHIFTING OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 24N77W EXTENDING
A RIDGE AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N71W AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE
FROM CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO BEYOND 32N72W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 29N71W TO 26N75W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 68W-73W. AN
ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED
NEAR 23N57W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 53W-63W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE E
ATLC NEAR 34N31W AND A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 35N64W
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 32N70W WSW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT NW
AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING FROM
BERMUDA TO THE N BAHAMAS THAT WILL BECOME ORIENTED ALONG 28N BY
WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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