[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 55.2W AT
11/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 256 NM E OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 340 NM E OF
MARTINIQUE MOVING W AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 53W-56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 51W-59W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N23W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
18N25W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 14N25W MOVING WNW AT
15-20 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A CUT OFF AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A
BURST OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE LOW OVER THE W QUADRANT.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N89W TO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W TO N GUATEMALA MOVING WNW
20-25 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 96W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N27W
EXTENDING ALONG 10N31W TO 10N38W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG
10N44W TO 12N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM 9N35W TO 13N42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS INLAND
STRETCHING THROUGH NW ALABAMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
MOVED TO WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM APALACHEE BAY
FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER W
CUBA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS MEXICO AND THE SW GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER MEXICO LATE SUN OR MON.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E
EXTENDS ACROSS HAITI TO COLOMBIA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 76W-84W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. T.D. SEVEN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SAT EVENING THEN DISSIPATING TO
A TROPICAL WAVE INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 26N73W EXTENDING
A RIDGE AXIS S OVER HAITI INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND NE TO OVER
BERMUDA AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 31N TO OVER
CUBA BETWEEN 75W-80W AND S OF 27N W OF 80W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 27N68W TO 23N73W. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 27N51W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 56W-65W. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N31W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 32N43W ACROSS
BERMUDA THEN WSW ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH SAT. T.D. SEVEN IS FORECAST
TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SAT EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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