[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 110233
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 10 2012

WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS
RATHER SHAPELESS WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING. SATELLITE
ESTIMATES ARE STILL T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A 1-MINUTE WIND OBSERVATION AT NOAA
BUOY 41040 OF 31 KNOTS AT 2246Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY
MARGINAL FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR
INCREASING ABOVE 20 KT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT TIME UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS.
THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...
WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN OR CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 275/21. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DISSIPATION AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.

GIVEN THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DEPRESSION WILL
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR PART
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...EVEN THOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WOULD REACH THOSE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 13.9N  54.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 14.1N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 14.3N  60.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 14.6N  64.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 14.8N  68.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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