[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 100841
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
A CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED
MAINLY ON CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  ERNESTO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/11...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A NEW
TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IN 36 TO 48 HR.  PLEASE SEE
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON THIS POSSIBILITY.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVEN AFTER ERNESTO
DISSIPATES...AND THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 18.0N  97.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  10/1800Z 17.9N  99.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 24H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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