[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 100241
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY NEAR THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO OVER THE THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
REDUCED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION AS ERNESTO IS
STEERED A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IN 2 TO 3
DAYS. PLEASE SEE THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS POSSIBILITY.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVEN AFTER ERNESTO
DISSIPATES...AND THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 18.1N  96.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 17.8N  98.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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