[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 092036
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012
500 PM AST THU AUG 09 2012

LOW CLOUD MOTIONS FROM ANIMATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANYING A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION.  THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO
WARRANT THE DESIGNATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT PENDING OBSERVATIONS
FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 41041...WHICH THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS NEAR OR
OVER A FEW HOURS FROM NOW.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AS THE LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR IN THE 15 TO 20
KT RANGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MOREOVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD OPEN UP INTO A WAVE IN A FEW
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING...AND MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION
AND THE CYCLONE IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 17 KT.  AN
EVEN FASTER FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS INDICATED
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS SUGGEST A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE LATTER PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE FORECAST BY THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 13.7N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 13.6N  46.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 13.5N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 13.5N  53.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 13.8N  57.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 14.6N  64.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 15.5N  70.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 16.5N  77.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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