[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 092035
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL
ON THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF COATZACOALCOS AROUND
1800 UTC WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...
ERNESTO HAS MOVED FARTHER INLAND AND BEGUN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS...AND THESE WINDS
ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER WATER NORTH OF THE CENTER.

SINCE THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND INTERACT
WITH HIGH TERRAIN...WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER TORRENTIAL
RAINS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.
ERNESTO IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS
FLOW PATTERN WILL FORCE ERNESTO ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST
TRACK OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO.

ALTHOUGH ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
REMNANT CIRCULATION IN 3 DAYS OR SO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 18.1N  95.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  10/0600Z 18.0N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  10/1800Z 17.5N  99.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  11/0600Z 17.5N 101.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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