[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 091439
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

...ERNESTO HANGING AROUND NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND SOON BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 94.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM
VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND
DISCONTINUED ALL OTHER COASTAL WACHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
IS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500
UTC...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY
AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CENTER
OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND
OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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