[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 93.0W AT 09/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 25 NM NNE OF PARAISO MEXICO AND ABOUT 90 NM ENE OF
COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MOVING W AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60
KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 89W-96W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N39W TO 15N39W TO 19N37W MOVING W
AT 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N39W. A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS ALSO
OBSERVED BETWEEN 33W-41W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OCCURRING NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 38W-40W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N61W TO 24N56W MOVING W-NW AT 15
KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS FLORENCE ACROSS
THE EASTERN ATLC EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND NOW IT INTERACTS WITH A
CENTRAL ATLC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH WHICH IS
PROVIDING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 56W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N75W TO 22N72W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN LOW-LEVEL GLOBAL MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS
NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 71W-76W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN
70W-77W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W WHICH IS
PROVIDING MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MAXIMUM DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
14N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 11N41W
TO 08N50W TO 09N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
07N-15N BETWEEN 11W-18W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA...AND FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN
41W-46W...AND FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF
THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING WHICH IS LOCATED NORTH OF TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO AS IT EMERGES INTO THE SW GULF WATERS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 24N94W. AT THE SURFACE...THE
PRESENCE OF ERNESTO IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CYCLONIC WINDS S OF 24N
BETWEEN 88W-98W. N OF 24N...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG
28N EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 27N97W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RESULT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF N OF
28N BETWEEN 88W-91W...AND OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF
84W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MUCH OF THIS
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER
THE SW GULF AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ACROSS MEXICO
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG 28N OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W AND IS
CONTINUING TO PULL A PORTION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
MOISTURE FROM ERNESTO TO THE SOUTHEAST IN A TRAJECTORY ALONG
20N87W TO 14N80W TO 17N73W. THIS MOISTURE...WHILE NOT PRODUCING
ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SW
OF A LINE FROM 09N76W TO 13N84W. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG
09N TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...
ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W
IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. AT TIMES...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH THE HIGH POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 34N67W
AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
28N81W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE CONUS N OF 28N W OF A LINE FROM 32N74W TO 28N81W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC S OF 26N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N77W THAT CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 64W-77W. FARTHER
EAST...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W...MENTIONED ABOVE...REMAINS
THE ONLY ACTIVE AREA CONVECTIVELY OUTSIDE OF THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGING THAT ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC.
THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
33N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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