[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 082034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
400 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

...ERNESTO MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 91.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO BARRA DE NAUTLA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND LATER ON
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  CIUDAD DEL CARMEN RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH...93 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 12 INCHES
OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ.  ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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