[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 08/1800 UTC IS NEAR
18.8N 90.9W. ERNESTO IS MOVING WESTWARD 12 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF BELIZE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
OTHER LAND AREAS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 96W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N.
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13.6N IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 33W AND
41W. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUCH THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 9 TO 13 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N53W 22N54W 16N55W.
A WEAKENING 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR
19N. THIS SYSTEM IS THE REMNANT OF FLORENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 19N TO 22N
BETWEEN 54W AND 62W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N...
FROM JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CONNECTED TO A 21N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...THAT IS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN VENEZUELA AND NEARBY WATERS AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
NEARBY ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 63W AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 76W IS RELATED MORE TO THE TROUGH OF
THE 21N72W CYCLONIC CENTER.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 15N26W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
ALONG THE 35W TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GUINEA COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL
PLAINS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN LAND AND 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM BRAZIL NEAR
3N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF MEXICO
NEAR 22N102W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO TO THE WEST OF
96W/97W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 30N.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
CUBA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 24N83W.

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST REACHES SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA.
THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND T.S. ERNESTO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF
28N TO THE EAST OF 95W...INCLUDING IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. BETWEEN FLORIDA AND TEXAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
ERNESTO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS INLAND IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 86W.
PLEASE REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N72W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS/THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N83W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE TROUGH AND THE CYCLONIC CENTER...
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA
OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W TO THE SOUTH OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 63W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR
76W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 9N73W...
TO 9N84W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA
AND 84W IN EASTERN NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO BE RELATED TO ERNESTO IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 9 AND 10 FEET BETWEEN 67W AND 82W...AND 20 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 24N75W BEYOND 30N80W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
22N70W TO 15N70W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 23N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W...AND FROM 22N
TO 27N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 34N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT
07/1200 UTC FOR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS 2.93 INCHES.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N63W 27N66W 23N71W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO
18N25W BEYOND 18N17W.

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N46W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N49W 24N33W
BEYOND 23N16W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS RELATED TO POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
FLORENCE. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 14 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD RELATED TO A 13N43W
LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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