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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
700 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

...ERNESTO WEAKENS WHILE MOVING OVER MEXICO...BUT HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 89.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO COATZACOALCOS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST.  ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND
EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON.  ERNESTO IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND THIS MORNING.  RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND ERNESTO
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ.  THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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