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WTNT35 KNHC 080543
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
100 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

...ERNESTO MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 88.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY THE BELIZE DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST.  ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND THIS MORNING.  RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR
WHERE ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS



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