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WTNT35 KNHC 080010
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
700 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

CORRECTED MOTION IN 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA......LANDFALL EXPECTED LATER
THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION
TOWARD TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER THIS EVENING.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO
MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
RECENT REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF MORE THAN 2 FEET HAS OCCURRED ON AMBERGRIS CAYE ISLAND
BELIZE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


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