[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 071800
TCDAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE CURRENT AND SHORT-TERM INTENSITY
AND TRACK FORECAST.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF
PEAK BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR WINDS OF 75 KT AND SURFACE-ADJUSTED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 66 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND THAT THE
CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THEREFORE THE
INITIAL...12 H...AND 24 H FORECAST POINTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.

THE HURRICANE WARNING NOW INCLUDES COZUMEL...AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE
NORTHEAST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY REPLACES THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1800Z 18.5N  85.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 19.0N  86.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 19.4N  89.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/0000Z 19.4N  91.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  09/1200Z 19.4N  93.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  10/1200Z 19.2N  96.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 96H  11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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