[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT35 KNHC 070850
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 83.9W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM NORTHWARD
TO CANCUN WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND
WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...AND
WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.  THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net