[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 79.9W AT 06/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 190 NM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 395 NM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MOVING W AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-19N BETWEEN 75W-81W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 37.9W AT 06/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 805 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 11
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN THE VICINITY OF
FLORENCE...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN
34W-44W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N60W TO 14N55W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS BETWEEN
48W-63W. HOWEVER...EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...
MAXIMUM VALUES OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN
54W-62W. ALSO 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES A VERY WEAK
TROUGH AXIS ALONG 56W. MOST OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT HOWEVER
ARE WEST OF THE WAVE AND LIKELY INFLUENCING TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO INSTEAD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
10N22W TO 09N32W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS
FROM 10N48W TO 12N57W TO 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 15W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 19W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N93W IMPACTS THE ENTIRE
GULF THIS EVENING AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
CIRCULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 87W-91W...AND FROM
22N-27N BETWEEN 90W-97W. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
IS SLOWLY ERODING DUE TO THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A VERY BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM ERNESTO ALONG 80W ACROSS CUBA TO THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH OVERALL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILING
ALONG 80W AS WELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA...
INCLUDING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. ANOTHER
AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING WESTWARD TO MOBILE BAY
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SURFACE
RIDGING CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS ERNESTO TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND
PRIMARILY CONTAIN A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THIS EVENING AS IT TRACKS WEST. ERNESTO REMAINS MOVING ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. WHILE RECENT CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 77W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS TRAIL TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
AND HISPANIOLA WITH THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. AS ERNESTO SKIRTS SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 70W WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER BY MIDDAY MONDAY...THE APPROACH OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC
MENTIONED ABOVE...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
30N83W TO THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N76W. THIS RIDGE
AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
ADJACENT FLORIDA PENINSULA COASTAL WATERS FROM 20N-27N W OF THE
BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
34N49W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM THE LOW ALONG
23N60W TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N71W. THIS
LARGELY REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE AS VERY WEAK AND BROAD SURFACE
TROUGHING N OF 24N BETWEEN 53W-65W WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
52W-57W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 67W-73W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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