[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 77.9W AT 05/1800
UTC OR ABOUT 178 NM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 308 NM E
OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER MOVING W
AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN
BETWEEN 70W-80W N OF 12N...INCLUDING JAMAICA...PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N  35.6W AT 05/1500
UTC OR ABOUT 669 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 12
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED
WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 35W-40W. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
14N50W TO 7N53W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LEADS A SURGE OS
MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WHILE
CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND THE WAVE AXIS IS WEAK...MODEL 700 MB
DATA INDICATES A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH AXIS ALONG 50W.
SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RAE WITHIN 140 NM WNW OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF WEST AFRICA
...ENTERING THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR
10N14W CONTINUING ALONG 9N18W 31N28W 11N37W TO 12N43W...WHERE
THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO 13N50W. THEN...THE ITCZ REAPPEARS W
OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N55W TO THE ERN COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 6N-14N E OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
...CENTERED NEAR 26N89W. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND INTO THE NW GULF WATERS. THE ACTIVITY IS DEPICTED ON
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 24N BETWEEN 88W-97W. ANOTHER AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS NOTED
OVER THE FAR ERN GULF E OF 85W...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS THE SE CONUS TO THE ERN GULF
WATERS ALONG 30N84W TO 26N83W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SEEMS RATHER LOOSE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERATING A LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 10 KT...EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS PASSING S OF JAMAICA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE OUTER CONVECTION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 70W-80W N OF
12N...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED TO ERNESTO IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS JAMAICA
AND CUBAS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH EASTERLY TRADES IN THE
RANGE OF 15-25 KT E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD W OF 78W N OF 25N.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NNW AT ABOUT 20 KT. THE ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS NOW INLAND OVER THE SE
CONUS AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE OVERALL CONVECTION MOVES NW
ACROSS THE SE CONUS...SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST SOME
SHOWERS TRAILING AGAINST THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SECOND BUT MUCH WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 31N50W TO 26N55W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY EN ELONGATED UPPER LOW/TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
32N49W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG 21N53W TO 28N71W.
THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OF ERNESTO IS GENERATING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF HISPANIOLA AN OVER
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 69W-74W. OTHERWISE
...ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC BASIN. METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN E OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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