[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 73.7W AT 05/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 230 NM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 250 NM SE
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING W AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50
KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
12N-16N BETWEEN 70W-73W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WELL DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
THE MONA PASSAGE...AND PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 63W-72W.
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 33.0W AT 05/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 520 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 12 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 33W-35W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N50W TO 16N47W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS
BETWEEN 40W-60W. HOWEVER...EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY...A MAXIMUM OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
BETWEEN 45W-51W. ALSO 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES A VERY
WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALONG 49W. MOST OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
HOWEVER ARE WEST OF THE WAVE AND LIKELY INFLUENCING TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO INSTEAD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
07N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 09N52W
TO 08N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-15N
BETWEEN 13W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N88W AND CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE NW GULF WATERS. AT THE SURFACE
HOWEVER...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N82W TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR
23N97W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS RIDGE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NEAR 29N81W TO
NEAR 24N82W IN THE VICINITY OF KEY WEST. MOST OF THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...HOWEVER
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF A LINE FROM
30N85W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILS SOUTHWESTWARD IMPACTING
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 85W-90W...AND FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 90W-93W. GENERALLY LIGHT E TO SE WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE GULF AS THE RIDGE AXIS HOLD ALONG 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AS IT TRACKS W-NW. ERNESTO
REMAINS MOVING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W
AND A LARGER MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC WATERS. WHILE CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO...SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
FAR NORTH OF THE CENTER FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 63W-72W IMPACTING
HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
EXAMINING EXPERIMENTAL RAINFALL MODEL DATA...OPEN WATER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO...WITH THE
CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. ELSEWHERE...DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING
W OF 80W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS VERY DRY AIR FROM
10N-21N BETWEEN 76W-86W AND IT WILL LIKELY BE A PLAYER IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS ERNESTO MOVES INTO AND MODIFIES THIS
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC
MENTIONED ABOVE...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N81W
TO THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. THIS RIDGE AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS OFF THE COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-31N W OF 76W...AND MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW OF ERNESTO GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 63W-72W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 31N49W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ALONG 24N57W TO 28N70W. THIS LARGELY REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE AS
VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
54W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED
SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N34W. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE REMAINS ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-26N
BETWEEN 32W-42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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