[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 05/0000 UTC IS NEAR
14.9N 71.0W. ERNESTO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. ERNESTO IS ABOUT
260 MI...420 KM SSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... OR
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. PLEASE READ THE
NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
68W-71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE TO INCLUDE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 64W-73W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE AT 04/2100 UTC IS NEAR
15.3N 31.7W. FLORENCE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. PLEASE
READ THE NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 31W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 29W-34W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W TO
7N19W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N49W TO THE
COAST OF GUYANA AT 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
W AFRICA FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 12W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG
31N FROM S GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. AN EMBEDDED 1015 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL AT 29N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 30N80W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 25N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 80W-83W. ELSEWHERE
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
21N-24N BETWEEN 80W-90W. FURTHER N... ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE N GULF FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 88W-95W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE
GULF NEAR 24N86W MOVING W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W
WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
MORE CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE NW GULF...E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N
COLOMBIA NEAR 6N75W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO
PANAMA TO S COSTA RICA ALONG 6N75W 9N80W 9N84W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. RESIDUAL
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W HONDURAS...
GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND S MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
SW FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 24N86W. THIS FLOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER
INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA AND AND OVER W CUBA AND THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA. EXPECT ERNESTO TO BE CENTERED S OF JAMAICA IN 24
HOURS WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH OVER FLORIDA IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW ATLANTIC FROM 27N-31N
BETWEEN 74W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 28N61W
24N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
60W-63W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
36N61W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH TO E TEXAS.
ANOTHER 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N33W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
31N46W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SW FROM THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
25N-28N BETWEEN 51W-60W. OF NOTE EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W
TO HAVE CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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