[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 04/1800 UTC IS NEAR
14.5N 69.3W. ERNESTO IS MOVING WESTWARD 16 KNOTS. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
55 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB.
ERNESTO IS ABOUT 240 NM TO THE SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND ABOUT 480 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 67W
AND 70W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 19N IN THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BETWEEN 62W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND 72W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE AT 04/1500 UTC IS NEAR
14.8N 30.6W. FLORENCE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 14 KNOTS.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB.
PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 29W AND 35W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 93W/94W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU
SENEGAL NEAR 12N12W TO 12N25W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BEING
DISRUPTED BY T.S. FLORENCE...AND IT CONTINUES FROM 12N33W TO
5N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST THREE TO FOUR
DAYS HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST SINCE YESTERDAY. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW NOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W/91W.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N85W. A
SECOND AND COMPARATIVELY SMALLER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
BEEN MOVING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COASTAL PLAINS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 86W AND
88W...AND FROM 28N TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN 90W AND 93W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 26N87W
TO 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 93W/94W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS WAVE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST
IN THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N...FROM 73W/74W IN COLOMBIA
TO 79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 83W/84W IN COSTA RICA. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN EARLIER SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN WARMING. PRECIPITATION STILL IS POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 78W IN COASTAL EASTERN PANAMA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE 25N85W CYCLONIC CENTER.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...AND FOR THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N82W 27N80W
23N80W. A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N ALONG THE
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N68W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN
64W AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N TO 34N BETWEEN
50W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N45W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N46W...TO 25N47W AND 15N53W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 60W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 34N32W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE. 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE RELATED TO THE 31N82W 27N80W 23N80W
SURFACE TROUGH. 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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