[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 041447
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ALTHOUGH
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED...A WELL-DEFINED BAND
STILL WRAPS AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE CENTER.  A BLEND
OF THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FLORENCE MOVES OVER
MARGINAL SSTS AND MODERATE SHEAR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN MORE STEADILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR FROM A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH TWO DAYS...AND THEN
FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 295/14.  A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO
STEER FLORENCE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD PATH DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.   THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST 3 DAYS.  AT LONG RANGE...THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.

THE FORMATION OF FLORENCE THIS MORNING MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST
OCCASION THAT THE SIXTH NAMED STORM HAS OCCURRED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...BEHIND ONLY 1936 AND 2005.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 14.8N  30.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 15.5N  32.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 16.0N  34.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 16.3N  36.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 16.5N  39.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 17.5N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 19.5N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1200Z 22.0N  59.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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