[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 67.2W AT 04/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 265 NM SSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 600 NM
ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING W AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 62W-70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER A LARGER AREA S OF 22N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN 60W-71W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE
MONA PASSAGE AND THE ABC ISLANDS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CENTERED NEAR IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N
29.1W AT 04/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 275 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/TNT21 KNHC. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 27W-31W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 13N41W TO 8N43W MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 13N38W TO 11N45W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BROKEN OFF WITH THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX AND DOES NOT ENTER THE TROPICAL ATLC OFF AFRICA
BUT BEGINS W OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX NEAR 12N33W ALONG 10N38W
S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO 6N50W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 8N29W TO
5N33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE NW HALF OF THE GULF ANCHORED
OVER W TEXAS AND IS GIVING WAY TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF
CENTERED NEAR 24N85W. THE DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER FEATURES
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE N GULF COAST FROM PENSACOLA
FLORIDA TO THE E SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO VERACRUZ MEXICO.
OTHERWISE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE
FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LIFT SLOWLY N INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC AND OVER NE FLORIDA WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT W ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE E GULF TODAY
THROUGH MON. ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD W ACROSS THE
GULF BEHIND THE TROUGH. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CURRENTLY IN THE
E CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A MINIMAL HURRICANE
BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE THROUGH
WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. THE UPPER LOW IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN
78W-81W AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST S OF 17N W OF 84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA INTO THE
E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF
13N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA E
OF 79W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES W THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE
TURNING MORE WNW REACHING MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE SUN
NIGHT THEN WILL ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TUE AND TO INLAND
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE INTO WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO BEYOND
32N77W. THE SURFACE TROUGH AT 04/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM INLAND
OVER NE FLORIDA W OF JACKSONVILLE TO OFFSHORE NEAR MELBOURNE
CONTINUING S INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 32N BETWEEN
71W-80W INCLUDING ALL OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
30N46W ALONG 26N59W TO A SECOND SMALLER UPPER LOW NEAR 29N66W TO
BEYOND 33N70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 31N48W TO 26N59W. THE
UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
29N61W TO 26N64W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES
TO EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND ESPECIALLY DENSE N OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT N THROUGH MON.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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