[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 040840
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION
OVERNIGHT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY CIRCULAR AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE A UNANIMOUS 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS AT
0600 UTC...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT
VALUE.

THE FACTORS THAT COULD AFFECT THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE DEPRESSION
ARE MIXED. THE CURRENT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CYCLONE AND MARGINALLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES COULD INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPLIT...WITH THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS SHOWING SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...HOWEVER...PREDICT LITTLE OR NO
STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
OPENING INTO A TROUGH IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWING THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THEREAFTER...THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LEAN TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IN PREDICTING A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/14. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
AT DAYS 4 AND 5 TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 14.2N  29.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 14.9N  30.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 15.5N  32.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 16.0N  35.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 16.2N  37.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 16.7N  43.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 17.5N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0600Z 19.0N  56.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



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